Minors Power Rankings from Historical Performance
fm | September 1, 2026
Method
I used TEff (which is TSCAR per 10 min) as my base, and then used it to create a full season TSCAR.
TEff is from tagpro-reference. Zero represents replacement-level production; negative values mean the historical season fell below that baseline. The site's SCAR explainer covers the underlying metric.
History covers S20–S39. The model first looks for the player's most recent minors season with at least 100 minutes. The remaining selection rules are:
- Majors players: Use qualifying minors history when available. If only majors history is available, use the higher of the majors TEff and the ranked estimate.
- Novice players: Use novice TEff at half weight when there is no qualifying minors season.
- Players without usable season history: Use the average TEff of big-board peers within 50 ranked-skill points, discounted 25%.
Of the 48 players, 42 use minors history, two use discounted novice history, and four use ranked estimates. Three of those four use the standard ranked fallback. Turbo has majors history, but the ranked estimate is higher.
What this means for the rankings
- Season age affects how confidently we can read a score. Twenty-two players use S39 minors seasons. Six use minors seasons from S29 or earlier, including Corbeh and Snowball, who supply most of PTB's total. Old seasons receive full weight.
- Sample size does not change the weight. GOBLIN and doku each use 100 minutes; mc uses 110 and the buttons 130. These samples are extrapolated to the same 350 minutes as a full source season.
- A ranked estimate describes a peer group. N()()B, Iodized Salt, CA$H., and Turbo are estimated from other players at similar ranked skill. Their scores have a different basis from an individual's recorded minors performance.
- A strong majors or novice result does not translate automatically to minors. The model's tier rules are assumptions. The test below shows where choosing a different rule changes the order.
- Every roster gets the same playing time. Absences, substitutions, improvement, new teammates, and maps are outside the calculation. A negative historical value also does not establish how a player will perform in S40.
How much the tier rule changes the results
The original analysis also tested using ranked peers with actual minors history for every player without a qualifying minors season. It keeps the 50-point skill range and 25% discount, while leaving players with minors history unchanged.
| Player | Team | Baseline projected TSCAR | Alternative projected TSCAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| the buttons | FWP | 8.2 | 17.7 |
| whiff | PTB | 16.1 | 10.0 |
| Turbo | STF | 17.5 | 17.9 |
Under those alternative estimates, MRV moves to second, PTB to third, FWP to fourth, and HGB to fifth. PTB's total falls to about 104.2 and FWP's rises to about 99.3. All other team positions remain unchanged. This shows sensitivity to the conversion rule; it does not establish which estimate better predicts performance.
Alternative values are reported in the original analysis.
Team breakdowns
1. FWO — 119.0
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gamma | S39 | 350 | 0.93 |
| Taurus | S39 | 200 | 0.87 |
| Cel | S39 | 300 | 0.82 |
| Spheroid. | S39 | 350 | 0.78 |
All four players use S39 minors seasons, with TEff ranging from 0.78 to 0.93. Even the lowest value, Spheroid.'s, contributes 27.3 projected TSCAR. FWO leads PTB by 8.7 points.
2. Portland Tile Blazers — 110.3
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corbeh | S28 | 300 | 1.32 |
| Snowball | S22 | 220 | 0.89 |
| Iodized Salt | Ranked peers | — | 0.48 |
| whiff | Novice S39 | 350 | 0.46 |
Corbeh has the highest minors player value at 46.2 projected TSCAR. He and Snowball combine for 77.4, about 70% of PTB's total, using S28 and S22 respectively.
The other two values come from different methods: Iodized Salt contributes 16.8 from ranked peers, while whiff contributes 16.1 from discounted novice history. None of PTB's four estimates uses a recent minors season. The alternative tier-conversion test puts PTB third.
3. Mercury Revolutions — 108.5
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tinderfella | S39 | 239 | 0.98 |
| #SelfySyntax | S39 | 350 | 0.82 |
| beef | S39 | 350 | 0.67 |
| Oink Oink | S39 | 350 | 0.63 |
All four players use S39 minors seasons with at least 239 minutes played. Tinderfella leads at 0.98 TEff, and the other three range from 0.63 to 0.82.
MRV is 1.8 projected TSCAR behind PTB and 10.5 behind FWO. Its total uses four recent seasons in the target tier, with no ranked estimates or cross-tier discounts.
4. Harlem Globebotters — 93.5
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| kl | S29 | 300 | 0.94 |
| Jer32 | S35 | 350 | 0.84 |
| Tumblewood | S39 | 350 | 0.50 |
| Imortallix | S39 | 250 | 0.39 |
kl and Jer32 combine for 62.3 projected TSCAR, two-thirds of HGB's total. Their source seasons are S29 and S35. Tumblewood and Imortallix add 31.2 from S39.
HGB sits 15.1 points below MRV, the largest gap between adjacent teams. It is much closer to FWP, with 3.7 points separating fourth and fifth.
5. The Flair Witch Project — 89.8
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| I'm a horse | S39 | 350 | 0.91 |
| C_T | S38 | 250 | 0.73 |
| Borgus | S39 | 350 | 0.69 |
| the buttons | Novice S37 | 130 | 0.24 |
I'm a horse, C_T, and Borgus combine for 81.6 projected TSCAR, about 91% of FWP's total. All three use S38 or S39 minors seasons.
the buttons adds 8.2 from 130 minutes in novice S37, discounted by half. The alternative ranked estimate raises that contribution to about 17.7 and moves FWP from fifth to fourth. This is the team whose total increases most in that test.
6. Anaballic Spheroids — 85.6
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| blah-zay | S39 | 344 | 1.15 |
| N()()B | Ranked peers | — | 0.53 |
| PASSTHEFLAG | S38 | 250 | 0.51 |
| j0sh | S36 | 250 | 0.26 |
blah-zay has the third-highest minors player value: 1.15 TEff from 344 minutes in S39. His 40.3 projected TSCAR accounts for 47% of ABS's total.
N()()B's 18.4 comes from a ranked estimate based on 16 peers. PASSTHEFLAG and j0sh add 27.0 from minors history. ABS is 4.2 points behind FWP and 2.3 ahead of OPH.
7. Over The Pants Handoffs — 83.3
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| omni | S38 | 250 | 1.02 |
| Trapsin | S39 | 350 | 0.57 |
| CA$H. | Ranked peers | — | 0.40 |
| GOBLIN | S39 | 100 | 0.39 |
omni contributes 35.7 projected TSCAR from minors S38, about 43% of OPH's total. The model selects that same-tier season despite his more recent majors appearance.
Trapsin adds 20.0 from a full S39 season. CA$H.'s 14.0 comes from 17 ranked peers, while GOBLIN's 13.7 is based on exactly 100 minutes, the minimum qualifying sample. Those last two estimates have less direct playing evidence behind them.
8. Cap Miasma — 77.7
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mista Feeneh | S21 | 280 | 0.61 |
| Catalyst | S27 | 280 | 0.57 |
| AdmaniaYT | S39 | 350 | 0.53 |
| broseph | S38 | 250 | 0.51 |
CMA has the smallest spread between its highest and lowest player values: 0.10 TEff. All four contribute between 17.9 and 21.4 projected TSCAR.
Mista Feeneh and Catalyst supply 41.3, about 53% of the total, from S21 and S27. Mista Feeneh's historical record is under NEB. The contributions are evenly distributed, but more than half of the total comes from seasons in the S20s.
9. The Way Of Pings — 71.1
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kep | S39 | 350 | 1.21 |
| Spjork | S39 | 300 | 0.62 |
| o o l e r | S39 | 300 | 0.13 |
| GtR | S38 | 200 | 0.07 |
Kep has the second-highest minors player value at 42.4 projected TSCAR. He and Spjork combine for 64.1, about 90% of WOP's total. o o l e r and GtR add 7.0 between them.
Three values come from S39 and the fourth from S38. WOP's ninth-place ranking reflects the distribution of those recent results: two large contributions and two much smaller ones.
10. Fraggle Block — 66.2
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bam | S38 | 250 | 1.02 |
| Sadness | S38 | 250 | 0.75 |
| doku | S39 | 100 | 0.31 |
| NateH | S39 | 350 | -0.19 |
Bam and Sadness combine for 62.0 projected TSCAR, roughly 94% of AFB's total. Both use minors S38, even though they played majors in S39.
doku adds 10.9 from a 100-minute S39 sample, while NateH's full S39 season contributes -6.7. Setting NateH's contribution to zero would put AFB at 72.8 and ninth, ahead of WOP. AFB also has the widest player-value spread in minors, at 1.21 TEff.
11. Balluminati — 53.9
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| tha king | S35 | 350 | 1.03 |
| St. Bernard | S37 | 250 | 0.37 |
| mc | S38 | 110 | 0.26 |
| kmichael | S37 | 350 | -0.12 |
tha king has the fourth-highest minors player value at 36.1 projected TSCAR. That supplies 67% of ATI's total, with the other three players combining for 17.9.
None of the four estimates uses S39. mc's S38 value comes from 110 minutes, while kmichael contributes -4.2 from S37. Setting that negative to zero raises ATI to 58.1, still eleventh.
12. Stat Farmers — 51.5
| Player | Source | Minutes | TEff used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toidi | S38 | 250 | 0.56 |
| Turbo | Ranked over majors | — | 0.50 |
| BertAndBort | S29 | 300 | 0.36 |
| oatz_mgoatz | S39 | 270 | 0.05 |
Toidi leads at 0.56 TEff, followed by Turbo at about 0.50. Together they contribute 37.1 projected TSCAR, about 72% of STF's total. BertAndBort and oatz_mgoatz add 14.4.
Turbo has majors history: 0.26 TEff over 200 minutes in S30. The model uses the higher ranked estimate instead, raising his contribution from 9.1 to 17.5. STF has no negative values, but it has the lowest team-leading TEff in the field and sits 2.4 points behind ATI.
How the teams stack up
| Rank | Team | Projected TSCAR | Main factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FWO | 119.0 | Four S39 minors values, all at least 0.78 |
| 2 | Portland Tile Blazers (PTB) | 110.3 | Corbeh and Snowball supply 70% from S28 and S22 |
| 3 | Mercury Revolutions (MRV) | 108.5 | Four S39 minors values, with no tier or ranked estimates |
| 4 | Harlem Globebotters (HGB) | 93.5 | kl and Jer32 supply two-thirds from S29 and S35 |
| 5 | The Flair Witch Project (FWP) | 89.8 | Three recent minors values; fourth place under the alternative test |
| 6 | Anaballic Spheroids (ABS) | 85.6 | blah-zay supplies 47%; N()()B uses ranked peers |
| 7 | Over The Pants Handoffs (OPH) | 83.3 | omni's minors S38 value supplies 43% |
| 8 | Cap Miasma (CMA) | 77.7 | Smallest player-value spread; 53% from S21 and S27 |
| 9 | The Way Of Pings (WOP) | 71.1 | Kep and Spjork supply 90% |
| 10 | Fraggle Block (AFB) | 66.2 | Bam and Sadness supply 94%; NateH contributes a negative value |
| 11 | Balluminati (ATI) | 53.9 | tha king supplies 67%; no S39 source seasons |
| 12 | Stat Farmers (STF) | 51.5 | Lowest team-leading TEff, at 0.56 |
FWO, PTB, and MRV occupy the top three within 10.5 TSCAR. FWO and MRV each use four S39 minors seasons. PTB gets 70% of its total from S28 and S22, with the remaining values coming from ranked peers and novice history. FWO's lead also depends on retaining Taurus.
The largest gap is between third and fourth: 15.1 points. Below that, HGB, FWP, ABS, and OPH are separated by 10.1 points. HGB leads this group under the baseline rules; FWP moves ahead under the alternative tier estimates. ABS and OPH each get more than 40% of their total from one player.
CMA, WOP, and AFB reach their totals in different ways. CMA's four contributions are closely grouped. WOP gets 90% from Kep and Spjork, while AFB gets 94% from Bam and Sadness. AFB therefore has a substantial second contribution despite its tenth-place ranking. These three teams span 11.6 points.
ATI and STF are 2.4 points apart at the bottom. ATI has a top-four individual value in tha king, but the remaining players combine for 17.9. STF's leading value is much lower, while its other three players contribute 31.9. ATI is 12.3 points behind AFB; setting kmichael's negative value to zero would not close that gap.
